During the PSP's manifesto launch early this month (Apr 6), Dr Tan Cheng Bock, the party's chairman, criticized the government's response to the US tariffs as "overblown".

He suggested that the government's strong warnings, such as Prime Minister Lawrence Wong's (PM Wong) statement on about the "likelihood of a full-blown global trade war," might be an attempt to "instil fear" in voters to make them choose the incumbent as a "safe bet" ahead of the General Election.

In a YouTube video, PM Wong urged Singaporeans to brace themselves because the risks are real and the stakes high.

Dr Tan called for economists to study the real impact of the tariffs. "Don't just make statements of this kind and scare everybody," he said.

To worry or not to worry?

On Saturday (Apr 19), Dr Tan reiterated his party’s stance on the trade war, calling it “a very difficult problem, but a very serious problem” that “we are not taking lightly”.

He said: "Trump is so unpredictable. I cannot give you the answer also. But i don't think that we are just lying low and say oh, nothing to worry. of course, we worry differently. We are looking for answers. This is a very difficult, serious problem. And we are not taking it lightly."

PSP's position on the US tariffs reflects a critical view of the government's initial response as potentially exaggerated for political gain but later recognized the trade war's significant economic implications that should not be taken lightly.

The manifestos of the People’s Action Party (PAP), Workers’ Party (WP), Progress Singapore Party (PSP), and Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) for the 2025 Singapore General Election reveal a spectrum of priorities, as summarized in the following table:

This table highlights the diversity in approach, with PAP focusing on continuity, WP on balanced reform, PSP on transformative change, and SDP on social justice and democratic overhaul.

Critical Insights

1. Addressing Public Concerns:

   • PAP: Targeted subsidies (e.g., Assurance Package) provide immediate relief but may not address root causes like rising costs, appealing to those prioritizing stability.
   • WP: GST exemptions and a $1,600 minimum wage offer practical relief, balancing affordability with feasibility, suitable for middle-class voters.
   • PSP: Reducing GST to 7% and deferring HDB land costs are bold, voter-friendly moves, but fiscal risks may concern cautious voters.
   • SDP: Abolishing GST on essentials and taxing the top 1% directly tackle inequality, appealing to lower-income groups, but lack of cost estimates raises feasibility questions.

2. Housing:

   • PAP: Over 50,000 new flats increase supply, with VERS addressing lease decay, maintaining market stability.
   • WP: 70-year leases and buy-back schemes focus on affordability, offering a middle-ground solution.
   • PSP: AHS excludes land costs for affordability, with Millennial Apartments addressing youth needs, but market disruption is a risk.
   • SDP: The $270,000 NOM Scheme cap is innovative but lacks specifics on flat types or fiscal impact. Building more flats is vague without a supply target, unlike PAP’s 50,000 or PSP’s 20,000/year.

3. Governance and Democracy:

   • PAP: Prioritizes stability and anti-corruption, avoiding structural reforms.
   • WP: Proposes an Ombudsman and GRC abolition for accountability, balancing reform with pragmatism.
   • PSP: Freedom of Information Act and GRC abolition push transparency, appealing to reformists.
   • SDP: POFMA reform, constitutional changes, and GLC divestment are radical, aligning with its democratic ethos, but may face resistance in Singapore’s conservative political culture.

4. Economic Growth:

   • PAP: Balances local and global needs, supporting PMETs and businesses.
   • WP: Enhances local talent via SkillsFuture, maintaining economic competitiveness.
   • PSP: A $2,250 minimum wage risks business costs but benefits workers.
   • SDP: Minimum wage and foreign labor reduction prioritize locals but lack specific figures, potentially disrupting Singapore’s globalized economy.

5. Social Safety Net:

   • PAP: Strengthens ComCare and Silver Support, building on proven systems.
   • WP: Simplifies assistance, focusing on healthcare and retirees.
   • PSP: Introduces caregiver allowances and MediSave expansion, resembling a basic income model.
   • SDP: NHIF and free maternal/pediatric care are ambitious but lack costings, while the Malay community plan and gender equality initiatives address inclusivity without specific actions.

Overall Assessment

• PAP: Appeals to voters valuing economic stability, strong governance, and proven leadership, attracting conservative voters, older generations, and middle to upper-income brackets. Its continuity is robust but may seem out-of-touch with reformists.

• WP: Offers a credible, pragmatic alternative, appealing to middle-class families, younger voters concerned about housing and education, and those desiring a stronger check on PAP. Its balanced approach is feasible but may lack transformative vision.

• PSP: Presents a bold platform for change, drawing support from younger demographics, lower-income workers, and reformists willing to risk significant change. Its ambition is appealing but faces feasibility challenges.

• SDP: Champions social justice and democratic reform, appealing to lower-income groups, youth, and reformists frustrated with inequality and governance restrictions. Its radical proposals (e.g., abolish PSLE, scrap CPF Minimum Sum) resonate with those seeking systemic change but risk alienating moderates due to limited electoral track record and vague costings.

The election outcome on May 3, 2025, will hinge on voter priorities—stability versus change—and how each party builds trust amid economic and social challenges.

Disclaimer: This analysis is a speculative exploration based on geopolitical trends, historical patterns, and open-source intelligence.

Foreign interference isn’t a conspiracy theory; it’s a global reality, from Russia’s 2016 U.S. election hacks to China’s whispered influence in Australia.

Singapore, a tiny island with outsized influence, is a high-value target. Its role as a global financial hub, with approximately S$5.4 trillion in assets under management makes its electoral outcome a matter of international consequence.

China

China, Singapore’s largest trading partner with S$150 billion in bilateral trade in 2022, has strong incentives to influence GE2025.

As ASEAN’s diplomatic anchor, Singapore influences regional policies critical to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and South China Sea claims.

A government aligned with Beijing would enhance its dominance in Southeast Asia, where Singapore’s neutrality is a linchpin.

Moreover, Singapore’s military training partnerships with Taiwan make it a target for China’s efforts to suppress Taiwanese independence narratives.

Past disinformation campaigns

China has a well-documented history of disinformation:

• Taiwan: Beijing has used deepfakes and propaganda to discredit Taiwanese leaders and deter voters from supporting independence, targeting Chinese-speaking communities to sow division, as reported by regional security experts.

• Philippines: China has promoted narratives portraying itself as a constructive regional actor while casting doubt on U.S. reliability, aiming to weaken U.S.-Philippine ties, per the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

• Singapore (2017): A notable incident involved Huang Jing, a U.S. citizen and academic at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, who was expelled in August 2017 for acting as an agent of influence for a foreign country, widely understood to be China. Huang used his position to share privileged information with foreign intelligence operatives and attempted to influence Singapore’s foreign policy, per MHA.

Potential impact in Singapore

Singapore’s 74% ethnic Chinese population and economic ties with China create vulnerabilities to disinformation.

AI-generated deepfakes on platforms like Meta and Tiktok could depict candidates disparaging Chinese culture, alienating voters.

Cyber operations might target journalists of alternative and mainstream media outlets, while covert funding through Chinese business networks or clan associations could support pro-China candidates.

The October 2024 deepfake video targeting former President Halimah Yacob, falsely showing her criticizing the government, underscores this threat.

The 2020 case of Dickson Yeo, a Singaporean sentenced in the U.S. for spying for Chinese intelligence, further highlights Beijing’s use of local operatives, though Yeo claimed no disloyalty to Singapore.

Why Singapore?

Singapore’s diplomatic leadership in ASEAN and military ties with Taiwan make it a strategic target.

China’s ambition to dominate ASEAN relies on influencing key players like Singapore, whose neutral stance could shift regional dynamics if manipulated.

Disinformation could erode public trust or promote candidates aligned with Beijing’s goals.

Israel

Israel, a key defense partner supplying Singapore with technologies like the Iron Dome, seeks to maintain a government supportive of bilateral ties.

As one of Singapore’s few ASEAN allies alongside Thailand, and with neighbors like Malaysia and Indonesia holding anti-Israel stances, Singapore’s pro-Israel policies are crucial.

A change in government could disrupt defense cooperation or weaken Israel’s Southeast Asian foothold, where Singapore is a diplomatic and technological hub.

Past disinformation campaigns

Israel’s disinformation efforts, particularly since the Gaza war, have aimed to shape global narratives:

• U.S. Lawmakers (2024): Israel funded a $2 million campaign through Stoic, a Tel Aviv-based firm, using 600 fake social media accounts to target 128 U.S. Congresspeople with pro-Israel messaging. Active as of June 2024, it employed AI tools like ChatGPT and fake news sites to attack UNRWA and influence policy (The New York Times, June 2024).

• Gaza War propaganda: AI-driven bot farms spread false narratives to dehumanize Palestinians and pressure policymakers, as reported by The Intercept in February 2024 (Gaza: Israel, Netanyahu, propaganda, lies, Palestinians).

• Meta censorship: Israel secured the removal of 38.8 million pro-Palestinian posts on Meta platforms by April 2025, aligning with efforts to suppress criticism (Dropsite News).

• Specific falsehoods: Misleading claims, such as audio evidence in the Gaza Baptist Hospital massacre, highlight tactical disinformation (Euronews, February 2024).

Potential impact on Singapore

Israel’s cyber capabilities, exemplified by tools like Pegasus and Graphite used in Singapore pose a threat.

While the 2024 Graphite spyware from Paragon Solutions was reportedly halted, Israel’s history with Pegasus—sold to various governments—suggests that comparable tools remain active.

Disinformation campaigns might target Singapore’s Malay-Muslim community (15% of the population) to counter anti-Israel sentiments, using bots on platforms like Meta.

Covert lobbying through defense or tech partnerships could subtly influence policy.

Why Singapore?

Singapore’s status as a rare ASEAN ally makes it a linchpin for Israel’s regional strategy.

A pro-Israel government ensures sustained defense cooperation and counters regional hostility.

Disinformation could protect these ties by shaping elite perceptions or neutralizing anti-Israel narratives.

Singapore's defense capabilities

Singapore has fortified its electoral process against disinformation:

• Foreign Interference (Countermeasures) Act 2021 (FICA): Enables authorities to remove false content and scrutinize foreign funding, countering China’s deepfakes and Israel’s bot campaigns Countering Foreign Interference.

• Cybersecurity: The Cyber Security Agency (CSA) secures electoral systems, with 2023 advisories promoting robust digital protections Advisory to Presidential Election Candidates.

• Public resilience: Media literacy campaigns and high public trust (84% in government, 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer) equip citizens to identify disinformation Commentary: What Singapore can do more against rising threat of foreign interference.

The FICA law was in the news recently when four members of one of Singapore's richest families were designated as "politically significant persons" for their membership to a China political advisory body. MHA had emphasised that the four individuals had not engaged in any “egregious activity”. As such, their designation can be seen as a pre-emptive move to guard against any potential vulnerabilities to foreign interference.

Also last year, FICA was invoked to block 95 social media accounts linked to self-exiled Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui, the first time that the account restrictions directions under FICA were being deployed.

Foreign disinformation poses a significant threat to GE2025.

China aims to dominate ASEAN by leveraging Singapore’s diplomatic influence and cultural ties, while Israel seeks to preserve its strategic alliance.

Singapore’s FICA, cybersecurity, and public resilience provide a strong defense, but sustained vigilance is critical.

Enhanced cyber audits, monitoring of foreign networks, and public education will ensure Singapore’s vote remains untainted.

As GE2025 approaches, the nation’s commitment to sovereignty will determine its success in countering these threats.

2025年5月3日，Jalan Kayu单选区（Jalan Kayu SMC）的29,565名选民将站在十字路口，选择两条崎岖路径之一：人民行动党（PAP）职总秘书长黄志明，背负2024年职总英康收购案的污点，宛如一辆伤痕累累的战车；抑或红点团结党（RDU）的激进教育家卡拉·马尼卡姆，其2021年前进党诉讼风波暴露的个人主义倾向，恰似一艘独木舟在政治风浪中摇摆 [译注：2025年4月22日，红点团结党宣布退出Jalan Kayu单选区，支持工人党参选，以避免多角竞争。本文基于此前候选人假设撰写]。

候选人背景

黄志明（56岁）

黄志明曾于2009至2013年担任新加坡空军总长，2013至2015年升任三军总长，展现军事生涯的严谨与权威。2015年，他代表人民行动党当选巴西立-榜鹅集选区国会议员，但在2020年竞逐盛港集选区时，以47.88%的得票率铩羽而归。自2018年起，他担任职总秘书长，力推劳动力发展和工人权益政策，试图为职场注入活力。然而，2024年职总英康收购案令其公信力蒙尘，被舆论抨击“要么纵容利益输送，要么严重失职”，如同一座信任堡垒被风暴侵蚀。

卡拉·马尼卡姆（57岁）

卡拉·马尼卡姆是单亲母亲、特殊教育专家兼中小企业主，拥有终身教育硕士学位，散发草根魅力。她是新加坡武装部队首批女军官之一，服役七年，官至中尉，彰显坚韧。2020年，她代表前进党竞选义顺集选区，获38.76%选票；同年12月被开除，2021年提起“不当终止党籍”诉讼，后和解。此事暴露其“独行侠”作风。如今，她加入红点团结党，聚焦职业培训和生活成本压力，试图以小党之力撬动选民心弦。

黄志明的职总英康风波

2024年7月，职总与德国保险巨头英杰华（Allianz）提出22亿新元的收购案，宣称将增强职总英康的竞争力。8月，黄志明与职总主席达纳拉克希米发表联合声明，信誓旦旦保证英杰华将维护英康的社会使命。然而，细节如暗礁般浮现，险些葬送交易。英杰华计划提取18.5亿新元资本，近半投资可迅速回笼，恐耗尽维持低保费的储备金，宛如从社会保障的根基抽梁换柱。2024年10月14日，文化、社区及青年部长唐振辉代表政府果断叫停交易，认定其背离英康2022年公司化目标，即强化财务实力以惠及保单持有人。

黄志明坚称职总中央委员会对资本提取计划毫不知情，试图撇清责任，但前英康首席执行官陈瑞财痛斥该计划“违背诚信”，直指交易暗藏私利。新加坡管理大学副教授陈庆文直言，这种无知“令人瞠目结舌” [译注：意指难以置信的疏忽]，如同指挥官在战场上迷失方向。2025年1月，黄志明将就业不稳定性归咎于人工智能，回避外籍劳工政策争议，被批“高高在上”，如同一座与民意脱节的孤塔。2020年盛港集选区失利已暴露其政治软肋，选民不禁质疑：他究竟是工人代言人，还是行动党机器的忠实齿轮？

卡拉的前进党诉讼争议

2021年7月，卡拉向高等法院起诉前进党，后移交国家法院，掀起政治风波。她要求宣告2020年12月开除决定“违法无效”，并追讨1万新元竞选开支，指控前进党违宪，未给予她申辩机会。前进党提交七份宣誓书，包括党魁陈清木的证词，指控她破坏团队凝聚力、抗命不遵。同区候选人郑德源透露，她跳过团队会议、擅自组织走访，形同独奏而非合唱。17人联署反对其复职，干部以55:11的投票支持开除决定。

陈清木回忆，2020年11月会议上，卡拉“挑衅好斗”，高喊“证据呢？证据呢？”，如同一头不甘受缚的猛兽。她通过脸书和法庭公开控诉，展现原则性，却也暴露分裂倾向，宛如在政治舞台上独舞。转投红点团结党被批“机会主义”，如同一名独行侠在寻找新战场。诉讼虽和解，但卡拉的个人主义标签挥之不去，恐难适应新加坡强调协作的政治生态。

选情分析

黄志明依托行动党强大的基层网络，Jalan Kayu单选区与宏茂桥集选区的历史渊源为其加分。然而，英康风波重创公信力，盛港失利阴影犹存，选民质疑其是否真为工人发声。卡拉的草根形象贴近民心，反对党协调机制或助其整合选票，但诉讼风波暴露团队协作缺陷，红点团结党知名度有限，难以撼动主流。工人党未派候选人，人民力量党若参选可能分散反对派选票，但红点团结党与其他小党的协调或可缓解分裂风险。这场选举无关谁是耀眼的明星，而是两块“卡由”（马来语“木头”谐音，喻指不完美的候选人）中，谁能更稳固地承载选民的期望。

The People's Action Party (PAP) launched their manifesto last Thursday (Apr 17), titled "Changed World, Fresh Team, New Resolve – Securing a Brighter Future for You."

Manifesto focuses on economic growth, education, social support, healthcare, housing, sustainability, arts, and social cohesion, with detailed initiatives in each area.

Here are the key points:

Economic Growth and Business Competitiveness

The PAP, as the ruling party, launched its manifesto on April 17, 2025, titled "Our Manifesto, Our Promise," at Infinite Studios. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong emphasized navigating global changes and defending Singapore's interests. Key proposals include:

• Enhancing support for Professionals, Managers, Executives, and Technicians (PMETs) to thrive in a dynamic economy.
• Nurturing Singaporean corporate leaders to drive local and global success, ensuring leadership in key industries.
• Strengthening fair employment practices through legislation like the Workplace Fairness Act to protect workers' rights.
• Maintaining Singapore's reputation as a reliable business hub, crucial for attracting foreign investment.
• Investing in transport and digital infrastructure to enhance connectivity and efficiency, supporting business operations.
• Adopting cutting-edge technologies, including Artificial Intelligence (AI), to boost productivity and innovation.
• Securing clean energy sources, with exploration of nuclear power, to ensure sustainable economic growth.
• Easing cost-of-living pressures through tax rebates and the Progressive Wage Credit Scheme, directly benefiting lower-income workers.
• Enabling businesses to upgrade productivity through technological and operational advancements.
• Facilitating access to manpower and capital for businesses to scale and innovate.
• Supporting companies in expanding into new markets, enhancing Singapore's global economic footprint.

Education and Skills Development

Education is framed as a cornerstone for future success, with a focus on inclusivity and lifelong learning:

• Redefining success to value diverse talents, moving beyond traditional academic metrics to recognize varied abilities.
• Customizing education to cater to diverse abilities and interests, ensuring no student is left behind.
• Investing in teachers' professional development to maintain high educational standards and adapt to new teaching methods.
• Partnering with parents, industry, and communities to deliver holistic education, fostering well-rounded development.
• Building four new Special Education (SPED) schools by 2030 to support students with special needs.
• Establishing additional early intervention centers to identify and support developmental needs early.
• Extending the Development Support-Learning Support Programme to more preschools, enhancing early childhood education.
• Empowering Singaporeans to reskill and upskill through accessible programs, preparing them for future job markets.
• Supporting companies in redesigning jobs and investing in worker training, aligning education with industry needs.
• Introducing the SkillsFuture Jobseeker Support Scheme to aid job seekers, particularly during economic transitions.

This pillar aims to build a flexible and inclusive education system, though challenges may arise in scaling these initiatives effectively.

Social Support and Inclusion

Social support is a critical focus, aiming to uplift vulnerable groups and ensure inclusivity:

• Strengthening ComCare and Silver Support schemes to provide financial assistance to low-income and elderly citizens.
• Enhancing Workfare to support lower-wage workers, ensuring they benefit from economic growth.
• Extending Progressive Wages to more sectors, aiming to raise wages for lower-income workers systematically.
• Providing individualized support for lower-income families via ComLink+, tailoring assistance to specific needs.
• Increasing childcare subsidies for disadvantaged families to ensure regular preschool attendance, promoting early education.
• Strengthening post-18 transitions for young adults, supporting their entry into the workforce or further education.
• Boosting employment opportunities for Persons with Disabilities (PwDs) through targeted initiatives, promoting inclusivity.
• Increasing subsidies for adult disability services to improve accessibility and quality of care.
• Piloting community living models for independent living, empowering PwDs to live autonomously.

These measures aim to create a more inclusive society, though their impact may vary based on funding and community uptake.

Healthcare and Well-Being

Healthcare initiatives are designed to cover the entire lifespan, ensuring comprehensive care:

• Launching Grow Well SG for children and adolescents, focusing on early health and development.
• Implementing Healthier SG for adults, promoting preventive care and healthy lifestyles.
• Introducing Age Well SG for seniors, ensuring dignified aging with adequate support.
• Innovating healthcare delivery through the Queenstown Health District, serving as a model for integrated care.
• Adding 13,600 new hospital beds over five years to meet growing healthcare demands.
• Redeveloping Alexandra Hospital to enhance facilities and services.
• Opening Eastern General Hospital by 2030, expanding healthcare capacity in the east.
• Growing the healthcare and nursing workforce to address staffing shortages and improve care quality.
• Establishing a National Mental Health Office to coordinate efforts and expand access to mental health services.
• Expanding access to mental health services across communities, addressing a critical public health need.

These initiatives aim to build a robust healthcare system, though challenges may include workforce retention and funding sustainability.

Housing and Urban Development

Housing remains a priority, addressing both supply and quality of living:

• Building over 50,000 new HDB flats in three years, equivalent to an entire Ang Mo Kio town, to meet housing demand.
• Increasing Shorter Waiting Time flats to reduce waiting periods for new homes.
• Exploring public housing options for higher-income couples and singles, expanding access to HDB housing.
• Ensuring a stable and sustainable property market through decisive measures, balancing supply and demand.
• Rejuvenating HDB towns through the Voluntary Early Redevelopment Scheme (VERS), with examples like Mount Pleasant, Kallang-Whampoa ("white flats"), and Bayshore (waterfront living at East Coast Park).

These efforts aim to ensure affordable and quality housing, though market dynamics may pose implementation challenges.

Sustainability and Green Spaces

Sustainability is a key focus, balancing urban development with environmental care:

• Creating 25 new parks to enhance green spaces for recreation and biodiversity.
• Developing 50km of park connectors to improve connectivity for pedestrians and cyclists.
• Establishing 13 therapeutic gardens to support mental and physical well-being.
• Developing a second marine park at Lazarus South and Kusu Reef, protecting marine ecosystems.
• Building new MRT lines, including Jurong Regional and Cross-Island Lines, to enhance public transport.
• Extending existing MRT lines and enhancing bus services to improve accessibility and reduce car dependency.

These initiatives aim to create a sustainable urban environment, though their success may depend on community engagement and funding.

Arts, Culture, and Sports

Arts and culture are highlighted as vital for quality of life and national identity:

• Expanding the SG Culture Pass to provide broader access to cultural experiences, promoting arts appreciation.
• Promoting early arts exposure in schools and preschools, fostering creativity from a young age.
• Offering more arts apprenticeships and scholarships to support emerging artists.
• Providing additional arts spaces and support for artists, enhancing the cultural ecosystem.
• Establishing a new Museum of Design to showcase creativity and innovation.
• Developing Kallang Alive, including a new indoor arena and home for Team Singapore, boosting sports infrastructure.
• Building new sports facilities in Clementi, Punggol, and Toa Payoh, and upgrading existing ones in Hougang, Pasir Ris, and Queenstown.

These efforts aim to enrich cultural and sporting life, though their impact may vary based on public participation.

Social Cohesion and Civic Engagement

Social cohesion is framed as essential for national unity and resilience:

• Fostering a strong Singaporean identity rooted in shared values and experiences.
• Upholding multi-racial and multi-religious values, ensuring harmony and inclusivity.
• Enhancing integration efforts to build a cohesive society, particularly for new citizens.
• Maintaining Singapore as an oasis of peace, emphasizing stability in a turbulent world.
• Nurturing a culture of giving by connecting donors and volunteers with those in need, promoting community support.
• Increasing avenues for civic participation, empowering citizens to contribute to nation-building.
• Strengthening partnerships between the government and the people, fostering collaborative governance.

These measures aim to build a united and engaged society, though their effectiveness may depend on community buy-in.

Summary Table